Eric Galvez v Tristan Eysele (Fri 10 Nov 2017)
Match won by Eric Galvez. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-9.
Starting level for
Eric Galvez:
23,765, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tristan Eysele:
15,151, level confidence: 65%.
Eric Galvez to win as he is currently playing
57% better than Tristan Eysele.
Eric Galvez won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eric Galvez played
74% better than Tristan Eysele in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eric Galvez actually played at a level of
25,007 and Tristan Eysele at a level of
14,398. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 4.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eric Galvez changes to +3.7% and Tristan Eysele changes to -4.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eric Galvez becomes +1.4% and for Tristan Eysele becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kelowna Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eric Galvez: 86%, Tristan Eysele: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eric Galvez: 82%, Tristan Eysele: 77%.
Final level for Eric Galvez:
24,094, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Tristan Eysele:
14,906, level confidence: 77%.