Eric Galvez v Noel Heaton (Thu 09 Nov 2017)
Match won by Eric Galvez. Result: 11-4,11-0,11-4.
Starting level for
Eric Galvez:
23,673, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Noel Heaton:
6,410, level confidence: 34%.
Eric Galvez to win as he is currently playing
269% better than Noel Heaton.
Eric Galvez won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eric Galvez played
313% better than Noel Heaton in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eric Galvez actually played at a level of
25,019 and Noel Heaton at a level of
6,065. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 2.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eric Galvez changes to +1.6% and Noel Heaton changes to -2.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eric Galvez becomes +0.7% and for Noel Heaton becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kelowna Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eric Galvez: 79%, Noel Heaton: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eric Galvez: 75%, Noel Heaton: 55%.
Final level for Eric Galvez:
23,828, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Noel Heaton:
6,309, level confidence: 55%.