Emyr Evans v Srikar Mummidi (Thu 16 Nov 2017)
Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-1,11-4,11-3.
Starting level for
Emyr Evans:
21,203, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Srikar Mummidi:
6,947, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing
205% better than Srikar Mummidi.
Emyr Evans won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played
313% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of
24,650 and Srikar Mummidi at a level of
5,976. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +9% and Srikar Mummidi changes to -8.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +2.5% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes -3.2%.
Given Emyr Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.
Given Srikar Mummidi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.6% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Emyr Evans is +1.3% and for Srikar Mummidi is -2.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 88%, Srikar Mummidi: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 76%, Srikar Mummidi: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Emyr Evans:
21,454, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi:
6,788, level confidence: 76%.