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Dafydd Parkman v Matt O'Conner (Thu 16 Nov 2017)

Match won by Matt O'Conner. Result: 5-11,6-11,11-9,6-11.

Starting level for Dafydd Parkman: 3,257, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matt O'Conner: 5,843, level confidence: 64%.
Matt O'Conner to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Dafydd Parkman.

Matt O'Conner won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt O'Conner played 33% better than Dafydd Parkman in this match.

As Matt O'Conner has played below his allowed range at 4,525, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Matt O'Conner would normally have been playing at level 5,314 (based on typical behaviour), Dafydd Parkman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt O'Conner changes to -3.2% and Dafydd Parkman changes to +6.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt O'Conner becomes -1.8% and for Dafydd Parkman becomes +3.2%.

Given Matt O'Conner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Matt O'Conner is -1.3% and for Dafydd Parkman is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt O'Conner: 80%, Dafydd Parkman: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt O'Conner: 69%, Dafydd Parkman: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dafydd Parkman: 3,330, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Matt O'Conner: 5,761, level confidence: 69%.