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Matt Bryant v Dave Davies (Wed 15 Nov 2017)

Match won by Dave Davies. Result: 6-11,9-11,7-11.

Starting level for Matt Bryant: 2,340, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Davies: 5,051, level confidence: 66%.
Dave Davies to win as he is currently playing 116% better than Matt Bryant.

Dave Davies won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Davies played 52% better than Matt Bryant in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Dave Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,557 and 5,051 without affecting his level.

As Dave Davies has played below his allowed range at 3,553, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Dave Davies would normally have been playing at level 4,322 (based on typical behaviour), Matt Bryant played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Davies changes to 0% and Matt Bryant changes to +5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Davies becomes -0% and for Matt Bryant becomes +3.2%.

Given Dave Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Dave Davies is 0% and for Matt Bryant is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Davies: 81%, Matt Bryant: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Davies: 68%, Matt Bryant: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Bryant: 2,392, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Dave Davies: 5,042, level confidence: 68%.