SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Sam Fenwick v David Haley (Sat 11 Nov 2017)

Match won by Sam Fenwick. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Sam Fenwick: 11,747, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Haley: 10,935, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Sam Fenwick to win as he is currently playing 7% better than David Haley.

Sam Fenwick won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Fenwick played 43% better than David Haley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Fenwick actually played at a level of 13,566 and David Haley at a level of 9,469. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Fenwick changes to +14% and David Haley changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Fenwick becomes +3.9% and for David Haley becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Henry R Davis North Wales Open 2016' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Fenwick: 90%, David Haley: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Fenwick: 78%, David Haley: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Fenwick: 12,206, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for David Haley: 10,490, level confidence: 75%.