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Matt O'Conner v Daniel Bergin (Thu 09 Nov 2017)

Match won by Matt O'Conner. Result: 11-7,11-4,7-11,12-10.

Starting level for Matt O'Conner: 5,535, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 7,852, level confidence: 68%.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Matt O'Conner.

Matt O'Conner won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt O'Conner played 26% better than Daniel Bergin in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt O'Conner actually played at a level of 7,401 and Daniel Bergin at a level of 5,872. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt O'Conner changes to +24% and Daniel Bergin changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt O'Conner becomes +7.2% and for Daniel Bergin becomes -7.5%.

Given Matt O'Conner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.3% has been applied to his level change.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.7% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Matt O'Conner is +5.3% and for Daniel Bergin is -5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt O'Conner: 89%, Daniel Bergin: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt O'Conner: 66%, Daniel Bergin: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt O'Conner: 5,819, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Daniel Bergin: 7,469, level confidence: 62%.