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Aran Edwards v David Haley (Sat 11 Nov 2017)

Match won by David Haley. Result: 7-11,4-11,12-14.

Starting level for Aran Edwards: 4,778, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Haley: 11,299, level confidence: 65%.
David Haley to win as he is currently playing 136% better than Aran Edwards.

David Haley won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played 56% better than Aran Edwards in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Haley was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,783 and 11,299 without affecting his level.

As David Haley has played below his allowed range at 7,617, his level reduction is 2.2% before damping. On the assumption that David Haley would normally have been playing at level 9,378 (based on typical behaviour), Aran Edwards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 7.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to -1.4% and Aran Edwards changes to +5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes -0.7% and for Aran Edwards becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Henry R Davis North Wales Open 2016' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 81%, Aran Edwards: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 65%, Aran Edwards: 77%.

Final level for Aran Edwards: 4,899, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for David Haley: 11,222, level confidence: 65%.