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Srikar Mummidi v Jethro D Binns (Thu 09 Nov 2017)

Match won by Jethro D Binns. Result: 9-11,11-6,8-11,8-11.

Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,845, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jethro D Binns: 9,803, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Jethro D Binns to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Srikar Mummidi.

Jethro D Binns won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jethro D Binns played 20% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

As Jethro D Binns has played below his allowed range at 8,561, his level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Jethro D Binns would normally have been playing at level 9,419 (based on typical behaviour), Srikar Mummidi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jethro D Binns changes to -3.9% and Srikar Mummidi changes to +5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jethro D Binns becomes -1.7% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes +2.4%.

Given Jethro D Binns's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Given Srikar Mummidi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Jethro D Binns is -1.1% and for Srikar Mummidi is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jethro D Binns: 87%, Srikar Mummidi: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jethro D Binns: 79%, Srikar Mummidi: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,947, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Jethro D Binns: 9,681, level confidence: 79%.