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David Haley v Mike Dickens (Thu 09 Nov 2017)

Match won by David Haley. Result: 14-12,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for David Haley: 11,535, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Mike Dickens: 5,926, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
David Haley to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Mike Dickens.

David Haley won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played 36% better than Mike Dickens in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Haley was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,771 and 11,535 without affecting his level.

As David Haley has played below his allowed range at 8,408, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that David Haley would normally have been playing at level 10,213 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Dickens played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to -3.1% and Mike Dickens changes to +7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes -1.5% and for Mike Dickens becomes +3%.

Given David Haley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Given Mike Dickens's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for David Haley is -0.9% and for Mike Dickens is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 78%, Mike Dickens: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 65%, Mike Dickens: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Haley: 11,414, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Mike Dickens: 6,044, level confidence: 70%.