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Tarek Shehata v Raphael Kandra (Thu 02 Nov 2017)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 6-11,11-9,1-11,2-11.

Starting level for Tarek Shehata: 15,036, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 38,315, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 155% better than Tarek Shehata.

Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 110% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 53% better than Tarek Shehata in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,700 and 38,315 without affecting his level.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 23,354, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 30,949 (based on typical behaviour), Tarek Shehata played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 9.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -0.8% and Tarek Shehata changes to +9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -0.3% and for Tarek Shehata becomes +2.9%.

Given Raphael Kandra's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 66% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tarek Shehata's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 17/18' so the adjustment for Raphael Kandra is 0% and for Tarek Shehata is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 86%, Tarek Shehata: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 67%, Tarek Shehata: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Shehata: 15,322, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 38,356, level confidence: 67%.