Aqeel Rehman v Oliver Pett (Wed 01 Nov 2017)
Match won by Aqeel Rehman. Result: 9-11,11-5,11-6,3-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Aqeel Rehman:
22,878, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Oliver Pett:
26,126, level confidence: 65%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Aqeel Rehman.
Aqeel Rehman won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Aqeel Rehman played
11% better than Oliver Pett in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Aqeel Rehman actually played at a level of
25,798 and Oliver Pett at a level of
23,169. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Aqeel Rehman changes to +11% and Oliver Pett changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Aqeel Rehman becomes +3% and for Oliver Pett becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Meadow Mill Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Aqeel Rehman: 82%, Oliver Pett: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Aqeel Rehman: 73%, Oliver Pett: 72%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Aqeel Rehman:
23,577, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Oliver Pett:
25,457, level confidence: 72%.