Oliver Pett v Omar Said Sobhy (Tue 31 Oct 2017)
Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-3.
Starting level for
Oliver Pett:
25,763, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Omar Said Sobhy:
8,924, level confidence: 27%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing
189% better than Omar Said Sobhy.
Oliver Pett won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played
313% better than Omar Said Sobhy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Pett actually played at a level of
30,796 and Omar Said Sobhy at a level of
7,466. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11.1% and 11.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to +5% and Omar Said Sobhy changes to -11.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes +1.6% and for Omar Said Sobhy becomes -3.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Meadow Mill Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 78%, Omar Said Sobhy: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 66%, Omar Said Sobhy: 44%.
Final level for Oliver Pett:
26,183, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Omar Said Sobhy:
8,619, level confidence: 44%.