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Oliver Pett v Omar Said Sobhy (Tue 31 Oct 2017)

Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-3.

Starting level for Oliver Pett: 25,763, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Omar Said Sobhy: 8,924, level confidence: 27%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing 189% better than Omar Said Sobhy.

Oliver Pett won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played 313% better than Omar Said Sobhy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Pett actually played at a level of 30,796 and Omar Said Sobhy at a level of 7,466. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11.1% and 11.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to +5% and Omar Said Sobhy changes to -11.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes +1.6% and for Omar Said Sobhy becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Meadow Mill Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 78%, Omar Said Sobhy: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 66%, Omar Said Sobhy: 44%.

Final level for Oliver Pett: 26,183, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Omar Said Sobhy: 8,619, level confidence: 44%.