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Nick Matthew v Raphael Kandra (Mon 30 Oct 2017)

Match won by Nick Matthew. Result: 12-10,11-9,5-11,8-11,11-8.

Starting level for Nick Matthew: 53,732, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 37,312, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Nick Matthew to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Raphael Kandra.

Nick Matthew won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Matthew played 6% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

As Nick Matthew has played below his allowed range at 44,344, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Matthew would normally have been playing at level 51,570 (based on typical behaviour), Raphael Kandra played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.6% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Matthew changes to -9.6% and Raphael Kandra changes to +10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Matthew becomes -2.3% and for Raphael Kandra becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Matthew: 83%, Raphael Kandra: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Matthew: 71%, Raphael Kandra: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Matthew: 52,578, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 38,315, level confidence: 75%.