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Raphael Kandra v Umair Zaman (Sat 28 Oct 2017)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 36,512, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Umair Zaman: 6,672, level confidence: 59%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 447% better than Umair Zaman.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 154% better than Umair Zaman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 45%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,120 and 36,512 without affecting his level.

In this case, Raphael Kandra played at level 18,474 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 20,150 (based on typical behaviour), Umair Zaman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to 0% and Umair Zaman changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes 0% and for Umair Zaman becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 94%, Umair Zaman: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 64%, Umair Zaman: 52%.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 36,512, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Umair Zaman: 6,795, level confidence: 52%.