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Adrain Waller v Nathan Lake (Sat 28 Oct 2017)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-4.

Starting level for Adrain Waller: 37,496, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 29,558, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Nathan Lake.

Adrain Waller won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 70% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrain Waller actually played at a level of 43,406 and Nathan Lake at a level of 25,533. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to +12% and Nathan Lake changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes +2.9% and for Nathan Lake becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 91%, Nathan Lake: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 78%, Nathan Lake: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrain Waller: 38,403, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 28,822, level confidence: 74%.