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Tesni Murphy v Lewys Hurst (Thu 02 Nov 2017)

Match won by Lewys Hurst. Result: 8-11,8-11,11-8,11-3,7-11.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 7,840, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Lewys Hurst: 10,027, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Lewys Hurst to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Tesni Murphy.

Lewys Hurst won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewys Hurst played 7% better than Tesni Murphy in this match.

As Lewys Hurst has played below his allowed range at 8,965, his level reduction is 6.9% before damping. On the assumption that Lewys Hurst would normally have been playing at level 9,829 (based on typical behaviour), Tesni Murphy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewys Hurst changes to -4.4% and Tesni Murphy changes to +7.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewys Hurst becomes -1.9% and for Tesni Murphy becomes +2.7%.

Given Lewys Hurst's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tesni Murphy's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.7% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Lewys Hurst is -1.2% and for Tesni Murphy is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewys Hurst: 91%, Tesni Murphy: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewys Hurst: 83%, Tesni Murphy: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 7,970, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Lewys Hurst: 9,895, level confidence: 83%.