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Richard Dobbin v Tesni Murphy (Thu 26 Oct 2017)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 5-11,6-11,5-11.

Starting level for Richard Dobbin: 2,248, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 7,810, level confidence: 68%.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 247% better than Richard Dobbin.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 106% better than Richard Dobbin in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tesni Murphy was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 3,569 and 7,810 without affecting her level.

In this case, Tesni Murphy played at level 5,056 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tesni Murphy would normally have been playing at level 5,514 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Dobbin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to 0% and Richard Dobbin changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes 0% and for Richard Dobbin becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Tesni Murphy is 0% and for Richard Dobbin is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 82%, Richard Dobbin: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 63%, Richard Dobbin: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Dobbin: 2,291, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy: 7,798, level confidence: 63%.