Mohamed Elsherbini v Vikram Malhotra (Fri 27 Oct 2017)
Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-7,14-12,11-5.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elsherbini:
27,746, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
27,230, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing
2% better than Vikram Malhotra.
Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played
52% better than Vikram Malhotra in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of
33,849 and Vikram Malhotra at a level of
22,320. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +22% and Vikram Malhotra changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +4.7% and for Vikram Malhotra becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 70%, Vikram Malhotra: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 58%, Vikram Malhotra: 73%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini:
28,936, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
26,716, level confidence: 73%.