Vikram Malhotra v Ahsan Ayaz (Thu 26 Oct 2017)
Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-6,11-3,4-11,6-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
27,687, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ahsan Ayaz:
19,835, level confidence: 65%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing
40% better than Ahsan Ayaz.
Vikram Malhotra won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played
12% better than Ahsan Ayaz in this match.
As Vikram Malhotra has played below his allowed range at 23,984, his level reduction is 7.6% before damping. On the assumption that Vikram Malhotra would normally have been playing at level 26,733 (based on typical behaviour), Ahsan Ayaz played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to -5.2% and Ahsan Ayaz changes to +8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes -1.7% and for Ahsan Ayaz becomes +2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 89%, Ahsan Ayaz: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 80%, Ahsan Ayaz: 72%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
27,230, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Ahsan Ayaz:
20,300, level confidence: 72%.