David Haley v Alex Eustace (Thu 26 Oct 2017)
Match won by David Haley. Result: 6-11,11-8,11-9,6-11,14-12.
Starting level for
David Haley:
11,674, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Alex Eustace:
12,151, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Alex Eustace to win as he is currently playing
4% better than David Haley.
David Haley won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played
6% better than Alex Eustace in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Haley actually played at a level of
12,264 and Alex Eustace at a level of
11,567. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to +4.5% and Alex Eustace changes to -5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes +1.8% and for Alex Eustace becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cairns International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 90%, Alex Eustace: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 85%, Alex Eustace: 82%.
Final level for David Haley:
11,884, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Alex Eustace:
11,924, level confidence: 82%.