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Vikram Malhotra v Mario Yanez (Wed 25 Oct 2017)

Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 27,740, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mario Yanez: 13,788, level confidence: 10%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Mario Yanez.

Vikram Malhotra won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played 74% better than Mario Yanez in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Vikram Malhotra was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 21,212 and 27,740 without affecting his level.

In this case, Vikram Malhotra played at level 24,102 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Vikram Malhotra would normally have been playing at level 24,257 (based on typical behaviour), Mario Yanez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to 0% and Mario Yanez changes to +0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes 0% and for Mario Yanez becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 85%, Mario Yanez: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 79%, Mario Yanez: 29%.

Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 27,740, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mario Yanez: 13,817, level confidence: 29%.