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Nick Dyer v Rob Greyling (Thu 26 Oct 2017)

Match won by Nick Dyer. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Nick Dyer: 6,703, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Rob Greyling: 3,012, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Nick Dyer to win as he is currently playing 123% better than Rob Greyling.

Nick Dyer won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Dyer played 106% better than Rob Greyling in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nick Dyer was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,617 and 6,703 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nick Dyer played at level 6,212 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Rob Greyling is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Dyer: 76%, Rob Greyling: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Dyer: 73%, Rob Greyling: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Dyer: 6,693, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Rob Greyling: 3,007, level confidence: 89%.