Tesni Murphy v Abby Hicks (Sat 21 Oct 2017)
Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-6.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
7,812, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Abby Hicks:
2,616, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing
199% better than Abby Hicks.
Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played
120% better than Abby Hicks in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tesni Murphy was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 4,482 and 7,812 without affecting her level.
In this case, Tesni Murphy played at level 5,836 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tesni Murphy would normally have been playing at level 5,917 (based on typical behaviour), Abby Hicks played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to 0% and Abby Hicks changes to +0.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes 0% and for Abby Hicks becomes +0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Coors Newport Open 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 80%, Abby Hicks: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 69%, Abby Hicks: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
7,800, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Abby Hicks:
2,626, level confidence: 72%.