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Tesni Murphy v Katie Jones (Sat 21 Oct 2017)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 7,829, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Katie Jones: 1,812, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 332% better than Katie Jones.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 136% better than Katie Jones in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tesni Murphy was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 3,095 and 7,829 without affecting her level.

In this case, Tesni Murphy played at level 4,585 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tesni Murphy would normally have been playing at level 4,923 (based on typical behaviour), Katie Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to 0% and Katie Jones changes to +3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes 0% and for Katie Jones becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Coors Newport Open 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 87%, Katie Jones: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 65%, Katie Jones: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 7,817, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Katie Jones: 1,856, level confidence: 65%.