Tesni Murphy v Lowri Roberts (Sat 21 Oct 2017)
Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-4.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
7,817, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Lowri Roberts:
3,901, level confidence: 41%.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing
100% better than Lowri Roberts.
Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played
106% better than Lowri Roberts in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of
7,931 and Lowri Roberts at a level of
3,845. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +0.7% and Lowri Roberts changes to -1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +0.4% and for Lowri Roberts becomes -0.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Coors Newport Open 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 78%, Lowri Roberts: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 77%, Lowri Roberts: 63%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
7,834, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Lowri Roberts:
3,870, level confidence: 63%.