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Emyr Evans v Srikar Mummidi (Sat 21 Oct 2017)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 22,614, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,457, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 250% better than Srikar Mummidi.

Emyr Evans won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 200% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Emyr Evans was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,183 and 22,614 without affecting his level.

In this case, Emyr Evans played at level 19,371 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Srikar Mummidi is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 93%, Srikar Mummidi: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 86%, Srikar Mummidi: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 22,580, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,447, level confidence: 85%.