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Raphael Kandra v Karim Ali Fathi (Tue 17 Oct 2017)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 33,878, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 34,917, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Karim Ali Fathi to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Raphael Kandra.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 47% better than Karim Ali Fathi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 41,740 and Karim Ali Fathi at a level of 28,340. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +23% and Karim Ali Fathi changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +4.8% and for Karim Ali Fathi becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 86%, Karim Ali Fathi: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 70%, Karim Ali Fathi: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 35,338, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 33,583, level confidence: 72%.