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Adrian Waller v Greg Lobban (Tue 17 Oct 2017)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 9-11,11-7,11-4,6-11,11-9.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 37,156, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 36,941, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Greg Lobban.

Adrian Waller won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 11% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of 39,045 and Greg Lobban at a level of 35,153. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +5.1% and Greg Lobban changes to -4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +1.5% and for Greg Lobban becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 86%, Greg Lobban: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 82%, Greg Lobban: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 37,709, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 36,453, level confidence: 83%.