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Srikar Mummidi v Sam Weeds (Sat 30 Sep 2017)

Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 11-8,6-11,11-6,12-10.

Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,108, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sam Weeds: 4,984, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Sam Weeds.

Srikar Mummidi won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played 21% better than Sam Weeds in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Srikar Mummidi actually played at a level of 5,561 and Sam Weeds at a level of 4,578. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to +8.7% and Sam Weeds changes to -8.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes +3.4% and for Sam Weeds becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Inter Counties 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 86%, Sam Weeds: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 79%, Sam Weeds: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,272, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Sam Weeds: 4,877, level confidence: 79%.