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David Haley v Emyr Evans (Sat 30 Sep 2017)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 5-11,6-11,4-11.

Starting level for David Haley: 11,553, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,324, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 102% better than David Haley.

Emyr Evans won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 120% better than David Haley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of 24,348 and David Haley at a level of 11,067. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +2% and David Haley changes to -3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +0.8% and for David Haley becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Inter Counties 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 88%, David Haley: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 84%, David Haley: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Haley: 11,368, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,484, level confidence: 84%.