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Tesni Murphy v Rebecca Baker (Sat 21 Oct 2017)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 7,822, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Rebecca Baker: 1,746, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 348% better than Rebecca Baker.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 136% better than Rebecca Baker in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tesni Murphy was taking it easy by anything up to 38%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 2,967 and 7,822 without affecting her level.

In this case, Tesni Murphy played at level 4,453 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tesni Murphy would normally have been playing at level 4,817 (based on typical behaviour), Rebecca Baker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to 0% and Rebecca Baker changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes 0% and for Rebecca Baker becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Coors Newport Open 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 83%, Rebecca Baker: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 60%, Rebecca Baker: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 7,810, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Rebecca Baker: 1,788, level confidence: 65%.