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Tesni Murphy v Heba El Torky (Tue 10 Oct 2017)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-6,11-4,17-15.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 8,209, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Heba El Torky: 6,408, level confidence: 65%.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 28% better than Heba El Torky.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 56% better than Heba El Torky in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of 9,049 and Heba El Torky at a level of 5,813. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +9% and Heba El Torky changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +3.1% and for Heba El Torky becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 81%, Heba El Torky: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 73%, Heba El Torky: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 8,324, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Heba El Torky: 6,267, level confidence: 73%.