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Mazen Hesham v Raphael Kandra (Sun 08 Oct 2017)

Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 10-12,11-7,11-3,11-6.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 37,688, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 35,076, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Raphael Kandra.

Mazen Hesham won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played 34% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of 42,155 and Raphael Kandra at a level of 31,359. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +10.8% and Raphael Kandra changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +2.6% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 89%, Raphael Kandra: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 80%, Raphael Kandra: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 38,568, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 34,403, level confidence: 77%.