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Karim Ali Fathi v Vikram Malhotra (Sun 08 Oct 2017)

Match won by Karim Ali Fathi. Result: 12-10,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 35,231, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 28,409, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Karim Ali Fathi to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Vikram Malhotra.

Karim Ali Fathi won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Ali Fathi played 55% better than Vikram Malhotra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Ali Fathi actually played at a level of 39,349 and Vikram Malhotra at a level of 25,436. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.4% and 10.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Ali Fathi changes to +10.4% and Vikram Malhotra changes to -8.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Ali Fathi becomes +2.6% and for Vikram Malhotra becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Ali Fathi: 79%, Vikram Malhotra: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Ali Fathi: 71%, Vikram Malhotra: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 35,973, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 27,907, level confidence: 78%.