Steven Colarusso v Matt O'Conner (Thu 19 Oct 2017)
Match won by Matt O'Conner. Result: 11-9,4-11,4-11,11-8,7-11.
Starting level for
Steven Colarusso:
5,326, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Matt O'Conner:
5,389, level confidence: 62%.
Matt O'Conner to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Steven Colarusso.
Matt O'Conner won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt O'Conner played
16% better than Steven Colarusso in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt O'Conner actually played at a level of
5,777 and Steven Colarusso at a level of
4,968. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt O'Conner changes to +7.2% and Steven Colarusso changes to -6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt O'Conner becomes +2.9% and for Steven Colarusso becomes -2.6%.
Given Matt O'Conner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.7% has been applied to his level change.
Given Steven Colarusso's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.4% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Matt O'Conner is +2.1% and for Steven Colarusso is -1.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt O'Conner: 79%, Steven Colarusso: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt O'Conner: 74%, Steven Colarusso: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Steven Colarusso:
5,219, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Matt O'Conner:
5,496, level confidence: 74%.