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Nick Dyer v Arnaud Marotin (Thu 19 Oct 2017)

Match won by Nick Dyer. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Nick Dyer: 6,248, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Arnaud Marotin: 4,645, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Nick Dyer to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Arnaud Marotin.

Nick Dyer won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Dyer played 200% better than Arnaud Marotin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Dyer actually played at a level of 9,331 and Arnaud Marotin at a level of 3,110. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Dyer changes to +39% and Arnaud Marotin changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Dyer becomes +10.5% and for Arnaud Marotin becomes -12%.

Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Nick Dyer is +7.5% and for Arnaud Marotin is -8.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Arnaud Marotin is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Dyer: 89%, Arnaud Marotin: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Dyer: 59%, Arnaud Marotin: 58%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Dyer: 6,705, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Arnaud Marotin: 4,448, level confidence: 58%.