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Srikar Mummidi v Matthew Crowley (Thu 19 Oct 2017)

Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 6-11,11-8,11-4,14-12.

Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,096, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Crowley: 5,970, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Matthew Crowley.

Srikar Mummidi won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played 23% better than Matthew Crowley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Srikar Mummidi actually played at a level of 6,700 and Matthew Crowley at a level of 5,432. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to +9.3% and Matthew Crowley changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes +3.4% and for Matthew Crowley becomes -3.6%.

Given Srikar Mummidi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.5% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Crowley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi is +2.4% and for Matthew Crowley is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 86%, Matthew Crowley: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 79%, Matthew Crowley: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,234, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Matthew Crowley: 5,842, level confidence: 76%.