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Will Cheek v Srikar Mummidi (Sun 15 Oct 2017)

Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 1-11,0-11,0-11.

Starting level for Will Cheek: 730, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,982, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing 719% better than Will Cheek.

Srikar Mummidi won all of the games and 97% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1000% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played 1000% better than Will Cheek in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Srikar Mummidi actually played at a level of 6,931 and Will Cheek at a level of 630. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 5.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to +3.1% and Will Cheek changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes +1.7% and for Will Cheek becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Junior 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 88%, Will Cheek: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 76%, Will Cheek: 58%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Will Cheek: 717, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,098, level confidence: 76%.