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Isaac Milford v Srikar Mummidi (Sun 15 Oct 2017)

Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 8-11,2-11,6-11.

Starting level for Isaac Milford: 2,290, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,965, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing 160% better than Isaac Milford.

Srikar Mummidi won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played 106% better than Isaac Milford in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Srikar Mummidi was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,828 and 5,965 without affecting his level.

In this case, Srikar Mummidi played at level 4,751 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Srikar Mummidi would normally have been playing at level 4,778 (based on typical behaviour), Isaac Milford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to 0% and Isaac Milford changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes 0% and for Isaac Milford becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Junior 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 87%, Isaac Milford: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 78%, Isaac Milford: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Isaac Milford: 2,302, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,980, level confidence: 78%.