Srikar Mummidi v Thomas Whiteley (Sun 15 Oct 2017)
Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 11-3,11-1,11-3.
Starting level for
Srikar Mummidi:
5,912, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Thomas Whiteley:
1,766, level confidence: 18%.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing
235% better than Thomas Whiteley.
Srikar Mummidi won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played
371% better than Thomas Whiteley in this match.
No results for Thomas Whiteley for more than 10 months before this junior event (Intercounty Junior 2017/18) so assume an
estimated 17% increase since then.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Srikar Mummidi actually played at a level of
7,016 and Thomas Whiteley at a level of
1,738. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.8% and 9.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to +1.2% and Thomas Whiteley changes to -9.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes +0.7% and for Thomas Whiteley becomes -4.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Junior 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 91%, Thomas Whiteley: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 76%, Thomas Whiteley: 27%.
A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi:
5,967, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteley:
2,020, level confidence: 27%.