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Alexis Cole v Nick Dyer (Thu 12 Oct 2017)

Match won by Alexis Cole. Result: 11-7,5-11,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Alexis Cole: 8,520, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Dyer: 6,182, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Alexis Cole to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Nick Dyer.

Alexis Cole won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alexis Cole played 24% better than Nick Dyer in this match.

As Alexis Cole has played below his allowed range at 7,796, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Alexis Cole would normally have been playing at level 8,246 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Dyer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alexis Cole changes to -1.3% and Nick Dyer changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alexis Cole becomes -0.7% and for Nick Dyer becomes +1.7%.

Given Alexis Cole's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nick Dyer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Alexis Cole is -0.4% and for Nick Dyer is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alexis Cole: 85%, Nick Dyer: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alexis Cole: 81%, Nick Dyer: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alexis Cole: 8,469, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Nick Dyer: 6,247, level confidence: 81%.