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Harry Anderson v Srikar Mummidi (Sun 08 Oct 2017)

Match won by Harry Anderson. Result: 7-11,11-3,5-11,13-11,11-7.

Starting level for Harry Anderson: 5,990, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 6,044, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Harry Anderson.

Harry Anderson won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Anderson played 10% better than Srikar Mummidi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Anderson actually played at a level of 6,306 and Srikar Mummidi at a level of 5,741. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Anderson changes to +5.2% and Srikar Mummidi changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Anderson becomes +2.3% and for Srikar Mummidi becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Edgbaston Jo Silver 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Anderson: 83%, Srikar Mummidi: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Anderson: 79%, Srikar Mummidi: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Anderson: 6,126, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,921, level confidence: 85%.