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Srikar Mummidi v Joseph Broadley (Fri 06 Oct 2017)

Match won by Srikar Mummidi. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-2.

Starting level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,698, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joseph Broadley: 2,425, level confidence: 38%.
Srikar Mummidi to win as he is currently playing 135% better than Joseph Broadley.

Srikar Mummidi won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Srikar Mummidi played 313% better than Joseph Broadley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Srikar Mummidi actually played at a level of 7,550 and Joseph Broadley at a level of 1,830. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi changes to +9.6% and Joseph Broadley changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Srikar Mummidi becomes +3.5% and for Joseph Broadley becomes -8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Edgbaston Jo Silver 2017' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Srikar Mummidi: 90%, Joseph Broadley: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Srikar Mummidi: 68%, Joseph Broadley: 47%.

A final adjustment of +1.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Srikar Mummidi: 5,891, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Joseph Broadley: 2,330, level confidence: 47%.