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Campbell Grayson v Vikram Malhotra (Mon 25 Sep 2017)

Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-9,12-10,11-6.

Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 37,291, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 28,624, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Vikram Malhotra.

Campbell Grayson won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played 42% better than Vikram Malhotra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of 38,969 and Vikram Malhotra at a level of 27,391. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +3.8% and Vikram Malhotra changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +1.3% and for Vikram Malhotra becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 85%, Vikram Malhotra: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 82%, Vikram Malhotra: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Campbell Grayson: 37,550, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 28,409, level confidence: 80%.