Mohamed Abouelghar v Raphael Kandra (Fri 22 Sep 2017)
Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-5.
Starting level for
Mohamed Abouelghar:
46,874, level confidence: 21%.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
35,320, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing
33% better than Raphael Kandra.
Mohamed Abouelghar won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played
120% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of
60,351 and Raphael Kandra at a level of
27,432. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +25% and Raphael Kandra changes to -6.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +4.8% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 46%, Raphael Kandra: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 36%, Raphael Kandra: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar:
48,645, level confidence: 36%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
34,726, level confidence: 65%.