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Mazen Hesham v Adrian Waller (Thu 21 Sep 2017)

Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 36,132, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 34,070, level confidence: 52%.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Adrian Waller.

Mazen Hesham won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played 65% better than Adrian Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of 45,069 and Adrian Waller at a level of 27,314. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +24% and Adrian Waller changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +4.9% and for Adrian Waller becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Charlottesville Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 69%, Adrian Waller: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 55%, Adrian Waller: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 37,620, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 32,735, level confidence: 58%.