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Tesni Murphy v Jenny Duncalf (Thu 21 Sep 2017)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-4,12-10,8-11,11-8.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 8,764, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jenny Duncalf: 6,564, level confidence: 50%.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 34% better than Jenny Duncalf.

Tesni Murphy won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 26% better than Jenny Duncalf in this match.

As Tesni Murphy has played below her allowed range at 8,278, her level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Tesni Murphy would normally have been playing at level 8,530 (based on typical behaviour), Jenny Duncalf played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to 0% and Jenny Duncalf changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes -0.1% and for Jenny Duncalf becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 93%, Jenny Duncalf: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 90%, Jenny Duncalf: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 8,663, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Jenny Duncalf: 6,666, level confidence: 69%.