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Raphael Kandra v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Wed 20 Sep 2017)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-9,7-11,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 34,972, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 24,614, level confidence: 54%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 24% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 31,407, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 33,653 (based on typical behaviour), Iker Pajares Bernabeu played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -2.6% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -1% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 65%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 60%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 34,474, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 24,957, level confidence: 69%.