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Raphael Kandra v Arnold Phatraprasit (Tue 19 Sep 2017)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 35,136, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Arnold Phatraprasit: 4,746, level confidence: 53%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 640% better than Arnold Phatraprasit.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 120% better than Arnold Phatraprasit in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 53%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,910 and 35,136 without affecting his level.

In this case, Raphael Kandra played at level 13,194 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 16,671 (based on typical behaviour), Arnold Phatraprasit played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to 0% and Arnold Phatraprasit changes to +9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes 0% and for Arnold Phatraprasit becomes +3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 77%, Arnold Phatraprasit: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 42%, Arnold Phatraprasit: 40%.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 35,136, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Arnold Phatraprasit: 4,912, level confidence: 40%.